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Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries

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  • Oliver Röhn

    (OECD)

  • Aida Caldera Sánchez

    (OECD)

  • Mikkel Hermansen

    (OECD)

  • Morten Rasmussen

Abstract

The high costs of crises underscore the need to strengthen the resilience of economies, notably by assessing early on potential vulnerabilities that can lead to such costly events. This paper first discusses the source and nature of potential vulnerabilities in OECD countries that can lead to costly economic crises. Based on the most recent evidence from the early warning literature and lessons learned from the global financial crisis, it then proposes a new dataset of more than 70 vulnerability indicators that could be monitored to assess country risks in OECD economies. The indicators are grouped into five domestic areas: i) financial sector imbalances, ii) non-financial sector imbalances, iii) asset market imbalances, iv) public sector imbalances and v) external sector imbalances. An additional international “spillovers, contagion and global risks” category aims at capturing vulnerabilities that could transmit from one country to another through financial, trade or confidence channels. Evidence in a companion paper (Hermansen and Röhn, 2015) shows that the majority of the proposed indicators for which sufficiently long time series exists is helpful in predicting severe recessions and crises in the 34 OECD economies and Latvia between 1970 and 2014. Résilience économique: Un nouvel ensemble d'indicateurs de vulnérabilité pour les pays OCDE Les coûts élevés des crises soulignent la nécessité de renforcer la résilience des économies, notamment en évaluant à temps les vulnérabilités potentielles qui peuvent causer de tels événements onéreux. Cette étude traite tout d'abord de l’origine et de la nature des vulnérabilités potentielles dans les pays de l'OCDE qui peuvent conduire à des crises économiques coûteuses. Sur la base des résultats documentés dans la littérature récente et des leçons tirées de la crise financière mondiale, l’étude propose ensuite un nouvel ensemble de données de plus de 70 indicateurs de vulnérabilité qui pourraient permettre d’évaluer les risques pays des économies de l'OCDE. Les indicateurs sont regroupés en cinq domaines domestique: i) les déséquilibres du secteur financier, ii) les déséquilibres du secteur non-financier, iii) les déséquilibres du marché des actifs, iv) les déséquilibres du secteur public et v) les déséquilibres du secteur externe. Une catégorie supplémentaire « retombées, contagion et risques globales » vise à capter les vulnérabilités qui pourraient se transmettre d'un pays à un autre par le canal de la finance, du commerce ou de la confiance. Les résultats présentés dans un document connexe (Hermansen et Röhn, 2015) montrent que la majorité des indicateurs proposés ici pour lesquels il existe des séries temporelles suffisamment longues sont utiles pour prévoir les récessions graves et les crises dans les 34 pays de l'OCDE et la Lettonie entre 1970 et 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Röhn & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Mikkel Hermansen & Morten Rasmussen, 2015. "Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1249, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1249-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jrxhgjw54r8-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose González Mínguez & Carmen Martínez Carrascal, 2019. "A crisis early warning model for euro area countries," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC, pages 1-13.
    2. Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Gonzalez Rivera, Gloria, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Sondermann, David, 2018. "Towards more resilient economies: The role of well-functioning economic structures," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-117.
    4. Jurgita Bruneckiene & Irena Pekarskiene & Oksana Palekiene & Zaneta Simanaviciene, 2019. "An Assessment of Socio-Economic Systems’ Resilience to Economic Shocks: The Case of Lithuanian Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Benczur, Peter & Joossens, Elisabeth & Manca, Anna Rita & Menyhert, Balint & Zec, Slavica, 2020. "How resilient are the European regions? Evidence from the societal response to the 2008 financial crisis," JRC Working Papers JRC121554, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    6. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Filippo Gori & Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises," OECD Economic Policy Papers 20, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crise; crisis; déséquilibres; imbalances; recession; resilience; récession; résilience; vulnerability; vulnérabilité;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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