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Early warning indicators: financial and macroeconomic imbalances in Central and Eastern European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Orsolya Csortos

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

  • Zoltán Szalai

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

In this paper we apply the Early Warning System methodology to ten Central and Eastern European Countries to find useful sets of indicators which could predict macroeconomic and financial imbalances. We argue that finding such indicators is crucial in the current monetary policy framework because significant imbalances could build up without any sign of risk to price stability. We examine the stylised behaviour of the most important macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and select the most preferred indicator variables. Our methodology consists of choosing the most useful combination of variables in terms of false alarms and misses, taken as given the preferences of the decision maker in terms of committng various types of errors. We find, that a certain combination of the global financial variable, the real exchange rate, capital flows and credit is a plausible signal macroeconomic imbalances. The results suggest that although the above indicators should not be used mechanically, they could usefully complement analytical tools available to modern central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Orsolya Csortos & Zoltán Szalai, 2014. "Early warning indicators: financial and macroeconomic imbalances in Central and Eastern European countries," MNB Working Papers 2014/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2014/2
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2014-2.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    2. Wasilewski, Mirosław & Zaburanna, Lesia & Poprozman, Natalia & Orlykowskyi, Mykola, 2016. "Methodological Aspects of Creating the System of Indicators of Crisis Prevention as the Foundation for Stabilization of Agricultural Production Based on Ukrainian Experience," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Åšwiatowego, WydziaÅ‚ Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warszawski, vol. 16(31).
    3. Oliver Röhn & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Mikkel Hermansen & Morten Rasmussen, 2015. "Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1249, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning indicators; signalling approach; macroeconomic stability; financial stability; monetary policy strategy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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