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The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output

Author

Listed:
  • Patrice Ollivaud
  • David Turner

Abstract

Potential output losses from the global financial crisis are estimated by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries which experienced a banking crisis over the period 2007-11 the median loss in potential output in 2014 is estimated to be about 5½ per cent, compared with a loss in aggregate potential output across all OECD countries of about 3½ per cent. The loss does, however, vary widely across countries, being more than 10% for several smaller European, mainly euro area, countries. The largest adverse effects come from lower trend productivity, which is a combination of both lower total factor productivity and lower capital per worker. Despite large increases in structural unemployment in some countries, the contribution of lower potential employment is limited because the adverse effect on labour force participation is generally much less than might have been expected on the basis of previous severe downturns. This may partly reflect pension reforms and a tightening up of early retirement pathways. Pre-crisis conditions relating to over-heating and financial excesses, including high inflation, high investment, large current account deficits, high total economy indebtedness and more rapid growth in capital-per-worker are all correlated with larger post-crisis potential output losses. This suggests that underlying the potential output losses was a substantial misallocation of resources, especially of capital, in the pre-crisis boom period. On the other hand, more competition-friendly product market regulation is associated with smaller losses of potential output, suggesting that it facilitates a reallocation of resources across firms and sectors in the aftermath of an adverse shock and so helps to mitigate its consequences. JEL classification: E32; E44. Keywords: Banking crisis, financial crisis, global financial crisis, potential output.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2015. "The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 41-60.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokac:5js64l2bv0zv
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5js64l2bv0zv
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    Cited by:

    1. Bakas, Dimitrios & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2020. "Financial crises and economic recovery: Cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2019. "The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Annalisa Croce & Jose Martí & Carmelo Reverte, 2019. "The role of private versus governmental venture capital in fostering job creation during the crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 879-900, December.
    6. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
    7. Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Hat die Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren zur Produktivitätsschwäche in Deutschland beigetragen?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 225298, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Héctor Bellido & Lorena Olmos & Juan A. Román-Aso, 2021. "The influence of government ideology on corruption: the impact of the Great Recession," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 677-708, July.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, June.
    10. Jannsen Nils, 2019. "Hat die Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren zur Produktivitätsschwäche in Deutschland beigetragen?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 68(1), pages 6-26, May.
    11. Nicholas Crafts, 2019. "The Fall in Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: A Much Bigger Estimate for the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 625-635, December.
    12. Chrysovalantis Amountzias, 2019. "Pricing Decisions and Competitive Conduct Across Manufacturing Sectors: Evidence from 19 European Union Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 413-440, September.
    13. Patrice Ollivaud & Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1466, OECD Publishing.
    14. Samatas, Andreas & Makrominas, Michalis & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "Financial intermediation, capital composition and income stagnation: The case of Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 273-289.
    15. Klaus Masuch & Edmund Moshammer & Beatrice Pierluigi, 2017. "Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 159-205.
    16. Patrice Ollivaud & Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2016. "Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1304, OECD Publishing.
    17. Byron Botha & Eric Schaling, 2020. "Commodity Prices and Policy Stabilisation in South Africa," Working Papers 10225, South African Reserve Bank.
    18. Masuch, Klaus & Moshammer, Edmund & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2016. "Institutions and Growth in Europe," CEPS Papers 11482, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    19. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.
    20. Marc Steffen Rapp & Iuliia A. Udoieva, 2018. "What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 676-690, February.
    21. Ugo Fratesi & Giovanni Perucca, 2018. "Territorial capital and the resilience of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 241-264, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; financial crisis; global financial crisis; potential output.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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