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A quantitative approach for analysis of macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks

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  • Rezaei Soufi, Hojat
  • Esfahanipour, Akbar
  • Akbarpour Shirazi, Mohsen

Abstract

Macroeconomics has constantly been exposed to socio-economic shocks. The concept of resilience in the economy has been developed to predict these shocks, reduce damages, and recover quickly. This paper proposes a quantitative approach for analyzing macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks and suggests appropriate actions to improve resilience. In this way, the variables affecting macroeconomic resilience have been identified through the literature review. Next, an integrated indicator of macroeconomic performance based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been developed. Finally, the periods of shocks are identified by determining the turning points of that indicator, and an appropriate approach for defining macroeconomic resilience is developed. The proposed approach is applied to three countries of the USA, China, and Iran in different shocks, including global crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and oil price shock. Eventually, by analyzing the relationships between effective variables on the macroeconomic resilience, using the DEMATEL method, we determine the most important variables to improve macroeconomic resilience, which can be useful for socio-economic planning at a macro level.

Suggested Citation

  • Rezaei Soufi, Hojat & Esfahanipour, Akbar & Akbarpour Shirazi, Mohsen, 2022. "A quantitative approach for analysis of macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:79:y:2022:i:c:s0038012121000938
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101101
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    3. Gomes, Luís S. & Santos, Sérgio P. & Coelho, Luís Serra & Rebelo, Efigénio L., 2023. "Using MCDA to assist an Intermunicipal community develop a resilience strategy in face of the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    4. Soltanisehat, Leili & González, Andrés D. & Barker, Kash, 2023. "Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Di Tommaso, Marco R. & Prodi, Elena & Pollio, Chiara & Barbieri, Elisa, 2023. "Conceptualizing and measuring “industry resilience”: Composite indicators for postshock industrial policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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