IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sentiment in Central Banks' Financial Stability Reports

Author

Abstract

Using the text of financial stability reports (FSRs) published by central banks, we analyze the relation between the financial cycle and the sentiment conveyed in these official communications. To do so, we construct a dictionary tailored specifically to a financial stability context, which assigns positive and negative connotations based on the sentiment conveyed by words in FSRs. With this dictionary, we construct a financial stability sentiment (FSS) index. Using a panel of 35 countries for the sample period between 2005 and 2015, we find that central banks' FSS indexes are mostly driven by developments in the banking sector and by the indicators that convey information about the health of this sector. We also find that the sentiment captured by the FSS index translates into changes in financial cycle indicators related to credit, asset prices, and systemic risk. Finally, our results show that central banks' sentiment deteriorates just prior to the start of banking crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Correa & Keshav Garud & Juan M. Londono & Nathan Mislang, 2017. "Sentiment in Central Banks' Financial Stability Reports," International Finance Discussion Papers 1203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1203
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1203.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2017.1203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Britten‐Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, April.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    3. Mathias Drehmann & Anamaria Illes & Mikael Juselius & Marjorie Santos, 2015. "How much income is used for debt payments? A new database for debt service ratios," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    6. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
    7. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wu, Di, 2013. "Word power: A new approach for content analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 712-729.
    9. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(577), pages 701-734, June.
    10. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    13. Mr. Samir Jahjah & Ms. Sònia Muñoz & Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Sharika Teh Sharifuddin & Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "Financial Stability Reports: What Are they Good for?," IMF Working Papers 2012/001, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Serge Jeanneau, 2014. "Financial stability objectives and arrangements - what's new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The role of central banks in macroeconomic and financial stability, volume 76, pages 47-58, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    20. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Correa & Keshav Garud & Juan M. Londono & Nathan Mislang, 2017. "Constructing a Dictionary for Financial Stability," IFDP Notes 2017-06-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Cheng Hoon Lim & Alexander D. Klemm & Sumiko Ogawa & Marco Pani & Claudio Visconti, 2019. "Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(11), pages 46-78, January.
    3. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Sciences Po publications 2019 – 08, Sciences Po.
    4. Francesco Cusano & Giuseppe Marinelli & Stefano Piermattei, 2021. "Learning from revisions: a tool for detecting potential errors in banks' balance sheet statistical reporting," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 611, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Rochelle Edge & Nellie Liang, 2017. "New Financial Stability Governance and Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Joaquin Iglesias & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2017. "How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey," Working Papers 17/24, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    8. T. Philipp Dybowski & Bernd Kempa, 2019. "The ECB’s monetary pillar after the financial crisis," CQE Working Papers 8519, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    9. André Binette & Dmitri Tchebotarev, 2019. "Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say?," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bholat, David & Brookes, James & Cai, Chris & Grundy, Katy & Lund, Jakob, 2017. "Sending firm messages: text mining letters from PRA supervisors to banks and building societies they regulate," Bank of England working papers 688, Bank of England.
    12. María del Pilar Cruz & Hugo Peralta & Bruno Ávila, 2020. "Análisis de Sentimiento Basado en el Informe de Percepciones de Negocios del Banco Central de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 862, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Rochelle M. Edge & J. Nellie Liang, 2019. "New Financial Stability Governance Structures and Central Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Asset Price Spillovers from Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Empirical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 43-74, June.
    2. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    3. Odendahl Florens & Sestieri Giulia, 2020. "Fed Communication on Financial Stability Concerns and Monetary Policy Decisions: Revelations from SpeechesAuthor-Name: Istrefi Klodiana," Working papers 779, Banque de France.
    4. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    9. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2021. "Economic prediction with the FOMC minutes: An application of text mining," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 751-761.
    10. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
    11. Hüning, Hendrik, 2020. "Swiss National Bank communication and investors’ uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2015. "Managing price and financial stability objectives - what can we learn from the Asia-Pacific region?," BIS Working Papers 533, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    14. Babatunde Samson Omotosho, 2020. "Central Bank Communication In Ghana: Insights From A Text Mining Analysis," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(1), pages 01-13, January.
    15. Harris, Richard & Karadotchev, Veselin & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Stoja, Evarist, 2019. "Have FSRs got news for you? Evidence from the impact of Financial Stability Reports on market activity," Bank of England working papers 792, Bank of England.
    16. Ales Bulír & Martin Cihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2011. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," DNB Working Papers 333, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Pragidis, 2019. "Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 91-112, February.
    18. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Hüning, Hendrik, 2017. "Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 160-177.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Central bank communications; Text analysis; Dictionary; Sentiment index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.