IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v176y2019icp68-74.html

The effect of diverging communication: The case of the ECB and the Bundesbank

Author

Listed:
  • Tillmann, Peter
  • Walter, Andreas

Abstract

When members of monetary policy committees communicate with the public, the resulting cacophony of voices is often considered a source of confusion. We associate each speech delivered by the presidents of the ECB and the Bundesbank since 2008 with a tone score and construct a measure of diverging tone. Shocks to the tone divergence between the Eurosystem’s main protagonists drive volatility, policy uncertainty and risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tillmann, Peter & Walter, Andreas, 2019. "The effect of diverging communication: The case of the ECB and the Bundesbank," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 68-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:68-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176518305299
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Wenbin, 2016. "Are financial markets less responsive to monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 258-261.
    2. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    3. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    6. Peter Tillmann & Andreas Walter, 2018. "ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and Policy Effectiveness," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta, 2025. "ECB's evolving communication and policy preferences since 2021 strategy review," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2025, Bank of Finland.
    2. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "The (not so) quiet period: Communication by ECB decision-makers during monetary policy blackout days☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central Bank Communication by ??? The Economics of Public Policy Leaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mahambare, Vidya & Pathak, Jalaj, 2021. "Differential impact of diversity in policy communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Müller, Lena Sophia & Glas, Alexander, 2021. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242364, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Fadda, Pietro & Hanifi, Rayane & Istrefi, Klodiana & Penalver, Adrian, 2025. "Central bank communication of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.
    9. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "The (Not So) Quiet Period: Communication by ECB Decision-makers during Monetary Policy Blackout Days," CEPR Discussion Papers 15735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Tsouknidis, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches discourage potential bank borrowers in the Eurozone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Buelens, Christian, 2025. "Googling ‘inflation’: Household inflation attention across the euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Hayo, Bernd & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    14. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. Tzomakas, Christos & Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Katsafados, Apostolos & Krokida, Styliani Iris, 2023. "Crisis sentiment and banks’ stock price crash risk: A missing piece of the puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Working Papers hal-03403256, HAL.
    2. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Müller, Karsten, 2020. "German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Working Papers 23, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    6. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    7. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    8. Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Murad, S.M. Woahid & Pathan, Shams & Durand, Robert B. & Zheng, Chen, 2025. "Understanding Bank-Level Uncertainty: New insights into banking activity and its macroeconomic impacts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Johannes Zahner, 2020. "Above, but close to two percent. Evidence on the ECB’s inflation target using text mining," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202046, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    13. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2021. "Uncertainty‐driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 587-623, May.
    17. Aprigliano, Valentina & Emiliozzi, Simone & Guaitoli, Gabriele & Luciani, Andrea & Marcucci, Juri & Monteforte, Libero, 2023. "The power of text-based indicators in forecasting Italian economic activity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 791-808.
    18. Franz Ulrich Ruch & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence From Earnings Calls," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 314-334, April.
    19. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
    21. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 163-178, October.
    22. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:68-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.