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What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication

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  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Zahner, Johannes

Abstract

To which degree can variation in sentiment-based indicators of central bank communication be attributed to changes in macroeconomic, financial, and monetary variables; idiosyncratic speaker effects; sentiment persistence; and random ‘noise’? Using the Loughran and McDonald (2011) dictionary on a text corpus containing more than 10,000 speeches and press statements, we construct sentiment-based indicators for the ECB and the Fed. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that sentiment is strongly persistent and influenced by speaker-specific effects. With about 80% of the variation in sentiment being due to noise, our findings cast doubt on the reliability of conclusions based on variation in dictionary-based indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayo, Bernd & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:222:y:2023:i:c:s0165176522004360
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110962
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
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    1. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Tsouknidis, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches discourage potential bank borrowers in the Eurozone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Vidya Mahambare & Akash Gupta & Sowmya Dhanaraj, 2026. "Analysing the sentiment-based variation in finance ministers’ communication," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1859-1883, February.
    3. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.
    4. Eugster, Patrick & Uhl, Matthias W., 2024. "Forecasting inflation using sentiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2025. "Who Is Leading in Communication Tone? Wavelet Analysis of the Fed and the ECB," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2025. "The ECB press conference statement: deriving a new sentiment indicator for the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 652-664, January.
    7. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Talking fragmentation away – Decoding the ’whatever it takes’ effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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