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Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis

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  • Baranowski, Pawel
  • Bennani, Hamza
  • Doryń, Wirginia

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether a tone shock derived from European Central Bank communication helps predict ECB monetary policy decisions. To this purpose, we first use a bag-of-words approach and several dictionaries on the ECB's Introductory Statements to derive a measure of tone. Next, we orthogonalise the tone measure on the latest data available to market participants to compute the tone shock. Finally, we relate the tone shock to future ECB monetary policy decisions. We find that the tone shock is significantly and positively related to future ECB monetary policy decisions, even when controlling for market expectations of monetary policy and the Governing Council's inter-meeting communication. Further extensions show that the predictive ability of the tone shock is robust to (i) the normalization of the tone measure, (ii) alternative market expectations of monetary policy, and (iii) the horizon of macroeconomic variables used in the Taylor-type monetary policy rule. These findings highlight an additional channel through which ECB communication improves monetary policy predictability, suggesting that the ECB may have private information that it communicates through its Introductory Statements.

Suggested Citation

  • Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2021. "Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:66:y:2021:i:c:s0176268020301129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101964
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    1. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta, 2025. "ECB's evolving communication and policy preferences since 2021 strategy review," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2025, Bank of Finland.
    2. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Cho, Dooyeon & Jung, Jaehun, 2026. "Mind the tone: Responses of inflation expectations to central bankers’ speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Su, Shiwei & Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Wood, Justine & Jia, Songbo, 2025. "Monetary policy analysis using natural language processing: Evaluating the People's Bank of China's minutes and report summary with the Taylor Rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Kanelis, Dimitrios & Siklos, Pierre L., 2025. "Emotion in euro area monetary policy communication and bond yields: The Draghi era," Discussion Papers 16/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Magdalena Szyszko, 2024. "Dictionary-based sentiment analysis of monetary policy communication: on the applicability of lexicons," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5421-5444, December.
    7. Shrimali, Suruchi & Ahmad, Wasim, 2025. "On the communication efforts of the central banks in emerging economies: The case of India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Ferrara, Federico Maria & Angino, Siria, 2022. "Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Johannes Zahner, 2020. "Above, but close to two percent. Evidence on the ECB’s inflation target using text mining," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202046, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Kaminskas, Rokas & Jurkšas, Linas, 2024. "ECB communication sentiments: How do they relate to the economic environment and financial markets?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Hayo, Bernd & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2022. "Do words transform into actions? The consistency of central banks’ communications and decisions," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-49, March.
    14. Agata Kliber & Magdalena Szyszko & Mariusz Próchniak & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2023. "Impact of uncertainty on inflation forecast errors in Central and Eastern European countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 535-574, December.
    15. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    16. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era," CAMA Working Papers 2022-75, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, revised Jun 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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