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ECB's evolving communication and policy preferences since 2021 strategy review

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  • Haavio, Markus
  • Heikkinen, Joni
  • Jalasjoki, Pirkka
  • Kilponen, Juha
  • Paloviita, Maritta

Abstract

We study the evolution of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy since July 2021, following the adoption of a new strategy and amid a period of volatile inflation. Utilizing text analysis, we assess changes in the general sentiment of the ECB's communication. Additionally, we employ topic modeling to develop an inflation focused tone index. By integrating these tone indices with real-time data from monetary policy meetings, we directly estimate the ECB's loss function. Our findings indicate a recent shift towards a more inflation-centered communication approach by the ECB. Preliminary results also suggest that the ECB's policy preferences have become more symmetric since July 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta, 2025. "ECB's evolving communication and policy preferences since 2021 strategy review," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2025, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:313643
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric loss function; central bank communication; textual analysis; topic model; optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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