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Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions

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  • Michael Ehrmann
  • Marcel Fratzscher

Abstract

The paper asks whether members of central bank decision-making committees should communicate with the public in a collegial manner, by conveying the consensus or majority view of the committee, or in an individualistic way, by providing the diversity of views among the committee members. It finds that more active as well as more consistent communication by committee members improves the predictability of monetary policy decisions significantly. This effect is sizeable as communication dispersion across committee members accounts on average for one third to one half of the market’s prediction errors of FOMC policy decisions. Moreover, more active and more consistent communication are found to also reduce the degree of uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. These findings suggest that a collegial communication which stresses the consensus view on policy inclinations can enhance the effectiveness of central bank communication. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:157:y:2013:i:1:p:223-244
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-012-9941-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Anderes & Alexander Rathke & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "The role of ECB communication in guiding markets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 351-383, March.
    2. Shiwei Su & Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Justine Wood, 2020. "How effective is central bank communication in emerging economies? An empirical analysis of the chinese money markets responses to the people’s bank of China’s policy communications," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1195-1219, May.
    3. Lähner, Tom, 2015. "Inconsistent voting behavior in the FOMC," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-546, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Klodiana Istrefi, 2019. "In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy," Working papers 725, Banque de France.
    5. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. David-Jan Jansen & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2014. "Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2014/175, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Stefan Collignon & Sebastian Diessner, 2016. "The ECB's Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(6), pages 1296-1312, November.
    7. Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2021. "National culture and central bank transparency: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & David-Jan Jansen, 2018. "Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 2-17, February.
    9. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2012. "Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 478-484, December.
    11. Collignon, Stefan & Diessner, Sebastian, 2016. "The ECB's monetary dialogue with the European Parliament:efficiency and accountability during the Euro crisis?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E43; E52; E58; G12; Communication; Monetary policy; Committee; Predictability; Effectiveness; Federal Reserve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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