FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?
Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymaker’s forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central tendency and, in a few cases, significantly better.
Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): May ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003.
"Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks,"
03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
- Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series WP-00-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0842, Econometric Society.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
- Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997.
"Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
- Scotese, Carol A., 1994. "Forecast smoothing and the optimal under-utilization of information at the federal reserve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 653-670.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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