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The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts

  • Tillmann, Peter

This paper uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by US monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6X4M-50X3TR1-1/2/d876dcd0d41c712669ec85f25f30a236
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1008-1013

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:1008-1013
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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  1. William T. Gavin, 2003. "FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 27-46.
  2. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-035, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  4. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. David Romer, 2010. "A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 951-957, 08.
  6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Ellison, Martin & Sargent, Thomas J, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers 7510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  8. Laurence Ball & Robert R. Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 108-114, May.
  9. Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 197-216, April.
  10. William T. Gavin & Geetanjali Pande, 2008. "FOMC consensus forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 149-164.
  11. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2006. "Monetary Policy When Potential Output is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 12268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  13. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers 13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Forecast disagreement among FOMC members," Working Papers 2009-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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