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Federal reserve forecasts: asymmetry and state-dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Julieta Caunedo
  • Riccardo DiCecio
  • Ivana Komunjer
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

We jointly test the rationality of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts of infiation, unemployment, and output growth using a multivariate nonseparable asymmetric loss function. We find that the forecasts are rationalizable and exhibit directional asymmetry. The degree of asymmetry depends on the phase of the business cycle: The Greenbook forecasts of output growth are too pessimistic in recessions and too optimistic in expansions. The change in monetary policy that occured in the late 1970s has been attributed in the literature to the Fed coming to terms with the difficulties in predicting real variables. Our results offer an alternative explanation: A combination of different preferences over expansions and recessions and less frequent recessions in the latter part of the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo DiCecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Federal reserve forecasts: asymmetry and state-dependence," Working Papers 2013-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-012
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
    3. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy Journal, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.

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    Keywords

    Forecasting ; Rational expectations (Economic theory);

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