The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us
The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe that it is equally important that macroeconomic models used to evaluate historical monetary policy reflect the framework that policymakers used to formulate that policy. To that end, we use the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts to examine the role that the Phillips curve framework played in Fed policymaking from 1979 through 2003. The FOMC's transcripts allow us to trace the evolution in policymakers' discussion of the Phillips curve framework over time. Our analysis suggests that the Phillips curve was much less central to the formulation and implementation of US monetary policy than it is in models commonly used to evaluate that policy.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2001.
"Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 2005.
"The Incredible Volcker Disinflation,"
NBER Working Papers
11562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003.
"The quest for prosperity without inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004.
"The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
- Michael Kiley, 2010.
2010 Meeting Papers
266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us," Working Papers 2004-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- George A. Kahn, 2012.
"The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking,"
in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3
Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Pier Francesco Asso & George A. Kahn & Robert Leeson, 2010. "The Taylor rule and the practice of central banking," Research Working Paper RWP 10-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2010-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Meal)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.