When can we forecast inflation?
This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001.
"Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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