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House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis


  • Christian Pierdzioch

    () (Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany)

  • Jan Christoph Rülke

    () (Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany)

  • Georg Stadtmann

    () (Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
    Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark)


We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:16-29:d:21172

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christian Hott, 2007. "Explaining house price fluctuations," Proceedings 1055, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
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    More about this item


    forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission


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