House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis
We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2002. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010.
"New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1456-1459, November.
- Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2010. "New Evidence of Anti-Herding of Oil-Price Forecasters," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 10-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, Economics Group.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
- Ronald Bewley & Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002. "On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 403-425.
- Christian Hott, 2009.
"Explaining House Price Fluctuations,"
2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Cho, Dong W. & Hersch, Philip L., 1998. "Forecaster Characteristics and Forecast Outcomes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 39-48, January.
- Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
- Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008.
"Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms,"
in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004.
"Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists,"
Working Paper Series
004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
- Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003.
"Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
- Sophie Larribeau & A. Benassy-Quéré & R. Macdonald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations : how much heterogeneity ?," Post-Print halshs-00069655, HAL.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:16-29:d:21172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.