House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?
We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Grosse Scharrnstrasse 59, 15230 Frankfurt (Oder)|
Phone: +49 (0)335 5534 2387
Fax: +49 (0)335 5534 2516
Web page: http://www.wiwi.euv-frankfurt-o.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004.
"Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists,"
Working Paper Series
004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
- Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
- Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006.
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
- Dan Bernhardt & Murillo Campbello & Edward Kutsoati, 2002. "Who Herds?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0213, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1996. "Is there a consensus among financial forecasters?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-464, December.
- Sophie Larribeau & A. Benassy-Quéré & R. Macdonald, 2003.
"Models of exchange rate expectations : how much heterogeneity ?,"
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008.
"Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2502, CESifo Group Munich.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005.
"Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-321, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2002. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
- Christian Hott, 2009.
"Explaining House Price Fluctuations,"
2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008.
"Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms,"
in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
- Cho, Dong W. & Hersch, Philip L., 1998. "Forecaster Characteristics and Forecast Outcomes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 39-48, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.