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Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast.

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Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 325.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:325
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  1. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
  2. Sephton, Peter S. & Cochrane, Donald K., 1990. "A note on the efficiency of the London metal exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 341-345, August.
  3. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  5. Georg Stadtmann & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Ruelke, 2011. "Scattered Fiscal Forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2558-2568.
  6. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non-ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December.
  7. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December.
  8. Dooley, Gillian & Lenihan, Helena, 2005. "An assessment of time series methods in metal price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 208-217, September.
  9. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-84, September.
  10. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
  11. Marcel Naujoks & Kevin Aretz & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2009. "Do German security analysts herd?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 3-29, March.
  12. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1456-1459, November.
  13. Hsieh, David A & Kulatilaka, Nalin, 1982. " Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1199-1207, December.
  14. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  15. Ronald Bewley & Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002. "On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 403-425.
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