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Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?

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  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 754-773, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:754-773
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-010-9279-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    2. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
    4. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing starts; Forecasting; Herding; E37; D84; C33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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