IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Fly with the eagles or scratch with the chickens? Zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern

Listed author(s):
  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Schäfer, Dirk
  • Stadtmann, Georg

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker einen Anreiz haben könnten, einem Herdentrieb zu folgen. In einer empirischen Untersuchung werden Prognosen für die Wechselkurse des Japanischen Yen, des Schweizer Franken, der Deutschen Mark und des Euros - gemessen jeweils gegenüber dem U.S.-Dollar - eingesetzt, um empirisch auf Herdenverhalten zu testen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass nicht Herdenverhalten, sondern Anti-Herding vorzuherrschen scheint. Die Prognostiker scheinen daher im Hinblick auf ihre Prognosen 'Produktdifferenzierung' zu betreiben.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/41400/1/637709454.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 287.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:287
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Grosse Scharrnstrasse 59, 15230 Frankfurt (Oder)

Phone: +49 (0)335 5534 2387
Fax: +49 (0)335 5534 2516
Web page: http://www.wiwi.euv-frankfurt-o.de/en/index.html
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
  2. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367.
  3. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
  4. Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2007. "Exchange Rates, Expectations, and Monetary Policy: a NOEM Perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 252-268, May.
  5. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  6. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December.
  7. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
  8. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  9. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
  10. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
  11. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
  12. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
  13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  14. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, February.
  15. Batchelor, Roy A. & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 311-316, October.
  16. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  17. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
  18. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2001. "Short-Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from Dealers and Fund Managers," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 27-47.
  19. Marcel Naujoks & Kevin Aretz & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2009. "Do German security analysts herd?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(1), pages 3-29, March.
  20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  21. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
  22. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
  23. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  24. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
  25. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.