Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?
Several studies have found evidence that views expressed by other forecasters in the previous period influence individuals' current forecasts, while other analyses have stressed that occasionally forecasters may have other objectives in addition to minimizing forecast errors. This paper presents evidence, using data from Livingston Survey, that these strategic behaviours are less likely to occur when the accuracy of the economic forecasts can be easily and quickly assessed.
Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001.
"Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets,"
Econometrics Working Papers Archive
wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
- Ronald Bewley & Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002. "On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 403-425.
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