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Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions

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  • Rybacki Jakub

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasters are often believed to idealistically work on improving the accuracy of their estimates based on for example the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Unfortunately, reality is far more complex. Forecasters are not awarded equally for each of their estimates. They have their targets of acquiring publicity or to earn prestige. This article aims to study the results of Parkiet's competitions of macroeconomic forecasting during 2015–2019. Based on a logit model, we analyse whether more accurate forecasting of some selected macroeconomic variables (e.g. inflation) increases the chances of winning the competition by a greater degree comparing to the others. Our research shows that among macroeconomic variables three groups have a significant impact on the final score: inflation (CPI and core inflation), the labour market (employment in the enterprise sector and unemployment rate) and financial market indicators (EUR/PLN and 10-year government bond yields). Each group is characterised by a low disagreement between forecasters. In the case of inflation, we found evidence that some forecasters put a greater effort to score the top place. There is no evidence that forecasters are trying to somehow exploit the contest.

Suggested Citation

  • Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ceuecj:v:7:y:2020:i:54:p:1-11:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2020-0001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; strategic behaviour; incentives; Parkiet;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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