IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v20y2012i5p974-984.html

A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti-herding

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence of anti-herding of emerging market exchange-rate forecasters.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti-herding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 974-984, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:20:y:2012:i:5:p:974-984
    DOI: roie.12007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12007
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/roie.12007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    2. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.
    3. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
    4. Christoph Buehren & Tim Meyer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202038, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Lukas Richau & Florian Follert & Monika Frenger & Eike Emrich, 2021. "The sky is the limit?! Evaluating the existence of a speculative bubble in European football," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(6), pages 765-796, August.
    6. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
    7. Frenkel, Michael & Mauch, Matthias & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2020. "Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 214-221.
    8. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
    9. Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 1-11, January.
    10. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-50.
    11. Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Investor Sentiment and (Anti) Herding in the Currency Market: Evidence from Twitter Feed Data," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 56-72, January.
    12. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2015. "Herding behavior and loss functions of exchange rate forecasters over interventions and financial crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 266-276.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:20:y:2012:i:5:p:974-984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.