Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast errors of the area-wide target variable. In an out-of-sample forecast experiment we find that our optimal pooling of information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy.
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- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, .
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201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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