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Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations

  • Anindya Banerjee
  • Victor Bystrov
  • Paul Mizen

Much of the literature on interest rate pass through assumes banks set retail rates in relation to contemporary market rates. We argue that future rates also matter, and if forecasts of future rates are included, the empirical specifications of many previous studies are misspecified. Including forecasts rquires careful choice of the data and models used to make forecasts: a large number of variables could influence future market rates, suggesting that factor forecasts method may be an appropriate method to consider. We evaluate forecasts before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for five interest rates in five European countries and the euro area as a whole. We find a significant role for forecasts of future interest rates in determining short- and long-run pass through, and we show that models which do not include future rates do not provide accurate estimates.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/10-07.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 10-07.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-07
Contact details of provider: Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk

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  8. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  10. Ehrmann, M. & Worms, A., 2001. "Interbank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence for Germany," Papers 73, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  11. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
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  13. Sander Harald & Kleimeier Stefanie, 2003. "Convergence in Eurozone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  14. de Bondt, Gabe & Mojon, Benoît & Valla, Natacha, 2005. "Term structure and the sluggishness of retail bank interest rates in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0518, European Central Bank.
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  17. Heffernan, Shelagh A, 1997. "Modelling British Interest Rate Adjustment: An Error Correction Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 211-31, May.
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  19. Frappa, Sebastien & Murez, Michèle & Montornès, Jérémi & Barbier de la Serre, Anne, 2008. "Bank interest rates pass-through: new evidence from French panel data," MPRA Paper 26709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  21. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  22. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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