IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations


  • Anindya Banerjee
  • Victor Bystrov
  • Paul Mizen


Much of the literature on interest rate pass through assumes banks set retail rates in relation to contemporary market rates. We argue that future rates also matter, and if forecasts of future rates are included, the empirical specifications of many previous studies are misspecified. Including forecasts rquires careful choice of the data and models used to make forecasts: a large number of variables could influence future market rates, suggesting that factor forecasts method may be an appropriate method to consider. We evaluate forecasts before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for five interest rates in five European countries and the euro area as a whole. We find a significant role for forecasts of future interest rates in determining short- and long-run pass through, and we show that models which do not include future rates do not provide accurate estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations," Discussion Papers 10-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-07

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    2. Heffernan, Shelagh A, 1997. "Modelling British Interest Rate Adjustment: An Error Correction Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 211-231, May.
    3. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
    4. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jorge Mart�nez-Pag�s & Patrick Sevestre & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Fynancial Systems and the Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 432, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Frappa, Sebastien & Murez, Michèle & Montornès, Jérémi & Barbier de la Serre, Anne, 2008. "Bank interest rates pass-through: new evidence from French panel data," MPRA Paper 26709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2004. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables for the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 260, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
    9. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    10. Ehrmann, M. & Worms, A., 2001. "Interbank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence for Germany," Papers 73, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    11. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wilhelm Fritz, 1995. "The response of short-term bank lending rates to policy rates: a cross-country perspective," BIS Working Papers 27, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    13. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    14. Paul Mizen, 2008. "The credit crunch of 2007-2008: a discussion of the background, market reactions, and policy responses," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 531-568.
    15. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    16. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    17. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    18. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    19. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    20. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    21. Mojon, Benoît & Valla, Natacha & de Bondt, Gabe, 2005. "Term structure and the sluggishness of retail bank interest rates in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 518, European Central Bank.
    22. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," Working Papers 334, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    24. De Graeve, Ferre & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vennet, Rudi Vander, 2007. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 259-278, January.
    25. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    26. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    27. Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0040, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
    2. Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 571-593.
    3. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    4. Danilo Liberati, 2014. "An estimated DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the credit market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 986, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Uchino, Taisuke, 2014. "Bank deposit interest rate pass-through and geographical segmentation in Japanese banking markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 37-51.

    More about this item


    forecasting; factor models; interest rate pass-through;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colin Rowat). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.