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How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies

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  • ANINDYA BANERJEE
  • VICTOR BYSTROV
  • PAUL MIZEN

Abstract

In this paper, we argue that banks anticipate short‐term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates—a level, slope, curvature model, and a principal components model—before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for four retail rates in four major euro area economies. Using both aggregate data and data from individual French banks, we find a significant role for forecasts of market rates in determining retail rates; alternative specifications with futures information yield comparable results.

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  • Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:7:p:1375-1414
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12056
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    Cited by:

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    2. Heinzelmann Ludwig & Missong Martin, 2020. "Nonlinear interest rate-setting behaviour of German commercial banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-28, June.
    3. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    4. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    5. Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne, 2013. "The relations between bank-funding costs, retail rates, and loan volumes. Evidence form Norwegian microdata," Discussion Papers 742, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    7. Pedersen, Michael, 2018. "Credit risk and monetary pass-through—Evidence from Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 144-158.
    8. Jiří Gregor & Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2021. "Interest Rate Pass‐Through: A Meta‐Analysis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 141-191, February.
    9. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Pass-Through, Expectations, and Risks. What Affects Chilean Banks’ Interest Rates?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 780, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Miller, Sam & Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus, 2020. "Liquidity and monetary transmission: a quasi-experimental approach," Bank of England working papers 891, Bank of England.
    11. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    12. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why Did Bank Lending Rates Diverge from Policy Rates After the Financial Crisis?," Discussion Papers 2015/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    13. Illes, Anamaria & Lombardi, Marco J. & Mizen, Paul, 2019. "The divergence of bank lending rates from policy rates after the financial crisis: The role of bank funding costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 117-141.
    14. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "A banklevel analysis of interest rate passthrough in South Africa," Working Papers 11027, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Gerlach, Jeffrey R. & Mora, Nada & Uysal, Pinar, 2018. "Bank funding costs in a rising interest rate environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-186.
    16. Victor Bystrov, 2014. "A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 491-512.
    17. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 991-1021, September.
    18. Enzo Cassino, 2012. "Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Gopalan, Sasidaran & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2017. "Does foreign bank presence affect interest rate pass-through in emerging and developing economies?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 373-392.
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    21. Egorov, Aleksei V. (Егоров, Алексей В.) & Borzykh, Olga A. (Борзых, Ольга А.), 2018. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-Through in Russia [Асимметрия Процентного Канала Денежной Трансмиссии В России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 92-121, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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