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Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands

Listed author(s):
  • Staszewska-Bystrova Anna

    ()

    (Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts, University of Lodz, Rewolucji 1905r. Str. 41, 90-214 Lodz, Poland)

The formula for the Scheffé prediction bands proposed by Jordà and Marcellino (2010) is reconsidered. It is demonstrated, that in many cases of practical interest, the bands fail to satisfactorily approximate the uncertainty associated with a path-forecast. A modification of the Scheffé method is proposed which improves the coverage properties of the bands.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik).

Volume (Year): 233 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5-6 (October)
Pages: 680-690

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:233:y:2013:i:5-6:p:680-690
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  1. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
  2. Anna Staszewska, 2006. "Representing Uncertainty about Response Paths: the Use of Heuristic Optimisation Methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 379, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
  4. Banerjee, A. & Bystrov, V. & Mizen, P., 2012. "How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies," Working papers 361, Banque de France.
  5. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
  6. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2011. "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201101, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  8. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
  9. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
  10. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
  11. Òscar Jordà, 2009. "Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 629-647, August.
  12. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2011. "Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws113426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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