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Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany

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  • Ivan Savin

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  • Peter Winker

Abstract

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognised as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of lags included is large, we compare full-specified VAR models with subset models obtained using a Genetic Algorithm enabling “holes” in multivariate lag structures. The problem is complicated by the fact that a structural break and seasonal variation of indicators have to be taken into account. The models allow for a comparison of the dynamic adjustment and the forecasting performance of the leading indicators for both countries revealing marked differences between Russia and Germany. JEL classification: C52, C61, E37 Keywords: Leading indicators, business cycle forecasts, VAR, model selection, genetic algorithms

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2013. "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 67-89.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k49pkpbf76j
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k49pkpbf76j
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty of Corporate Bond Spreads by Bonferroni-Type Prediction Bands," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 6(2), pages 89-104, June.
    2. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    3. Baragona Roberto & Cucina Domenico, 2013. "Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Modeling by Genetic Algorithms," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(1), pages 3-21, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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