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A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland

Author

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  • Victor Bystrov

    (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology)

Abstract

The paper describes the results of estimation of a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model that relates the markup on mortgage loans in national currency, granted to households by monetary financial institutions, and 3-month inter-bank rate that approximates the cost of funds for financial institutions. The factors by which the model is augmented, summarize information that can be used by banks to forecast interest rates and determine risk premium. The estimation results indicate that there is a significant relation between the changes in the markup and the changes in 3-month WIBOR. This relation can be interpreted as evidence of incomplete transmission of shocks from the inter-bank rate to mortgage rates set by banks. The shocks to 3-month WIBOR are partially absorbed by changes in the markup. The relation between the markup and various groups of macroeconomic and financial indicators are studied on the basis of impulse response analysis and structural interpretation of the estimated factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Bystrov, 2014. "A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 491-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:45:y:2014:i:6:p:491-512
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor models; interest rates; pass-through; markup;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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