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A threshold cointegration analysis of interest rate pass-through to UK mortgage rates

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  • Becker, Ralf
  • Osborn, Denise R.
  • Yildirim, Dilem

Abstract

This paper empirically analyses the interest rate transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom by exploring the pass-through of the official rate to the money market rate and of the market rate to the mortgage rate. Potential asymmetries, due to financial market conditions and monetary policy, lead to the use of a nonlinear threshold error-correction model, with hypothesis tests based on nonstandard bootstrap procedures that take into account the discrete nature of changes in the official rate. The empirical results indicate the presence of substantial asymmetries in both steps of the process, with these asymmetries depending on past changes in the money market rate and whether these are motivated by official rate changes. Generalized impulse response function analysis shows that adjustments differ with regard to the sign and magnitude of interest rate changes in a way that is consistent with conditions in the interbank and mortgage markets over the recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Ralf & Osborn, Denise R. & Yildirim, Dilem, 2012. "A threshold cointegration analysis of interest rate pass-through to UK mortgage rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2504-2513.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2504-2513
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.004
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    2. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Lesanovska, Jitka, 2016. "Bank efficiency and interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Czech loan products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 153-169.
    3. Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
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    7. Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "Market anticipation of monetary policy actions and interest rate transmission to US Treasury market rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 545-551.
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    9. Ebru Yüksel & Kıvılcım Metin Özcan, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in Turkey and impact of global financial crisis: asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 98-113, February.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2015. "Interest rate pass through and asymmetries in retail deposit and lending rates: An analysis using data from Colombian banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 270-277.
    11. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Kanokwan Chancharoenchai, 2014. "How inflationary are oil price hikes? A disaggregated look at Thailand using symmetric and asymmetric cointegration models," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 409-422, July.
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    13. Bennouna, Hicham, 2019. "Interest rate pass-through in Morocco: Evidence from bank-level survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 142-157.
    14. Victor Bystrov, 2014. "A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 491-512.
    15. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    16. A.H. Ahmad & Nusrate Aziz & Shahina Rummun, 2013. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the UK: Has the Transmission Mechanism Changed During the Financial Crisis?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(1), pages 17-38, March.
    17. Sznajderska, Anna, 2013. "On the empirical evidence of asymmetric effects in the Polish interest rate pass-through," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 78-93.
    18. Francesco Grigoli & José M. Mota, 2017. "Interest rate pass-through in the Dominican Republic," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, December.
    19. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Pass-through Effects from Monetary Policy to Housing Prices in South Africa," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(2 (Summer), pages 123-140.
    20. Gregor, Jiří & Melecký, Martin, 2018. "The pass-through of monetary policy rate to lending rates: The role of macro-financial factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-88.
    21. Fitri Ami Handayani & Febrio Nathan Kacaribu, 2019. "Asymmetric Transmission of the Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from the Consumer Credit Rates in Indonesia," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 201938, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia.
    22. Dilem Yildirim, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through to Turkish Lending Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," ERC Working Papers 1207, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2012.
    23. harraou, Khalid, 2019. "Analyse du pass-through du taux d’intérêt au Maroc [Analysis of the interest rate in Morocco]," MPRA Paper 94968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Sungill Han & Chanjin Chung & Prasanna Surathkal, 2017. "Impacts of Increased Corn Ethanol Production on Price Asymmetry and Market Linkages in Fed Cattle Markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 378-402, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate transmission; Mortgage rates; Nonlinear cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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