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How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies

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  • Banerjee, A.
  • Bystrov, V.
  • Mizen, P.

Abstract

In this paper we argue that banks anticipate short-term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates - a level, slope, curvature model and a principal components model - before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for four retail rates in four major euro area economies. Using both aggregate data and data from individual French banks, we find a significant role for forecasts of market rates in determining retail rates; alternative specifications with futures information yield comparable results.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, A. & Bystrov, V. & Mizen, P., 2012. "How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies," Working papers 361, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:361
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    2. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why did bank lending rates diverge from policy rates after the financial crisis?," BIS Working Papers 486, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    4. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1804 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15030 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:164-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pinter, Julien & Boissel, Charles, 2016. "The Eurozone deposit rates’ puzzle: Choosing the right benchmark," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 33-36.
    8. Victor Bystrov, 2014. "A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 491-512.
    9. Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne, 2013. "The relations between bank-funding costs, retail rates, and loan volumes. Evidence form Norwegian microdata," Discussion Papers 742, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    10. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    11. Enzo Cassino, 2012. "Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    13. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Pass-Through, Expectations, and Risks. What Affects Chilean Banks’ Interest Rates?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 780, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:373-392 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; factor models; interest rates; pass-through.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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