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How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies

  • Banerjee, A.
  • Bystrov, V.
  • Mizen, P.

In this paper we argue that banks anticipate short-term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates - a level, slope, curvature model and a principal components model - before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for four retail rates in four major euro area economies. Using both aggregate data and data from individual French banks, we find a significant role for forecasts of market rates in determining retail rates; alternative specifications with futures information yield comparable results.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 361.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:361
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  14. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
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  23. Frappa, Sebastien & Murez, Michèle & Montornès, Jérémi & Barbier de la Serre, Anne, 2008. "Bank interest rates pass-through: new evidence from French panel data," MPRA Paper 26709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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