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Calculating Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions Using Highest Density Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • Anna Staszewska-Bystrova
  • Peter Winker

Abstract

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A Monte Carlo comparison of the HDR bands with existing alternatives shows that the former are competitive with the bootstrap-based Bonferroni and Wald confidence regions. The relative tightness of the HDR bands matched with their good coverage properties makes them attractive for applications. An application to corporate bond spreads for Germany highlights the potential for empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2016. "Calculating Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions Using Highest Density Regions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1564, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1564
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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