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Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions

  • Helmut Lütkepohl

    ()

    (DIW, FU Berlin)

  • Anna Staszewska-Bystrova

    ()

    (University of Lodz)

  • Peter Winker

    ()

    (University of Lodz)

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a pre-specified coverage level, for the impulse responses at all horizons considered simultaneously. The methods are compared in a simulation experiment and recommendations for empirical work are provided.

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File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/25-2013_luetkepohl.pdf
File Function: First 201325
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Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201325.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201325
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  1. Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
  2. Staszewska, Anna, 2007. "Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-132, September.
  3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
  5. Jordà, Òscar & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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  13. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," TERG Discussion Papers 307, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
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  15. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
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