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Aporte de las expectativas de empresarios al pronóstico de las variables macroeconómicas

Author

Listed:
  • María Alejandra Hernández-Montes
  • Ramón Hernández-Ortega
  • Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez

Abstract

Este documento evalúa el aporte de las expectativas de los empresarios, capturadas a través de las encuestas del Banco de la República y Fedesarrollo, a los pronósticos de las principales variables macroeconómicas: inflación, desempleo, empleo y crecimiento económico. Este aporte se evalúa mediante la comparación de los errores de pronóstico de uno a cuatro trimestres de dos modelos econométricos anidados. Los resultados sugieren que las expectativas de los empresarios reducen de manera importante el error de pronóstico de la inflación y del crecimiento económico, mientras que los aportes al pronóstico del empleo y el desempleo son limitados. **** ABSTRAC: In this paper we evaluate the contribution of business expectations from surveys of Banco de la República and Fedesarrollo, to the forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables: inflation, unemployment, employment and economic growth. We make this assessment by comparing one to four quarters ahead forecast errors of two nested models econometrics. The results suggest that the expectations of businessmen could have information that improves forecasts of economic growth and inflation and have other lower contributions to employment and unemployment predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • María Alejandra Hernández-Montes & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, 2022. "Aporte de las expectativas de empresarios al pronóstico de las variables macroeconómicas," Borradores de Economia 1202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1202
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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