IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0244.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Beatrice N. Vaccara
  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which reduce the frequency of false signals but still provide adequate early warning of cyclical turning points. Simple regression models based on first differences in the logarithms produce a comparatively good record of forecasts one and two quarters ahead. The best results are obtained by using predictive chains whereby, e.g., quarterly changes in the lagging index (inverted) for Q[sub t] are used to forecast changes in the leading index in quarter Q which in turn are used to forecast changes in real GNP (or the coincident index) in Q[sub t+2].

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice N. Vaccara & Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 0244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0244.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 613-670.
    2. Laidler, David E W & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 741-809, December.
    3. Popkin, Joel, 1977. "An Integrated Model of Final and Intermediate Demand by Stage of Process: A Progress Report," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 141-147, February.
    4. Laden, Ben E, 1972. "Perfect Competition, Average Cost Pricing and the Price Equation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(1), pages 84-88, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2014. "Zur Prognose von konjunkturellen Wendepunkten: Dreimal-Regel versus Markov-Switching," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(16), pages 21-25, August.
    5. Vojtech Benda & Lubos Ruzicka, 2007. "Short-term Forecasting Methods Based on the LEI Approach: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2007/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.