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The impact of seasonal and price adjustments on the predictability of German GDP revisions

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Neuwirth, Stefan

Abstract

Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are predictable. This paper uses a newly available real-time data to analyze the revisions of real seasonal adjusted GDP, of nominal unadjusted GDP, of the seasonal pattern, and of the GDP deflator for the period between 1992 and 2006. We find that the revisions of the nominal unadjusted GDP are unpredictable, but that the revisions of the price adjustments are predictable. Nevertheless, revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are hardly predictable and less well predictable compared to earlier studies. This lower predictability seems to be linked to the finding that revisions of seasonal adjustments are hardly predictable, too, and that their predictability decreased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Neuwirth, Stefan, 2012. "The impact of seasonal and price adjustments on the predictability of German GDP revisions," Kiel Working Papers 1753, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Troy D. Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 313-330.
    5. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisionen der deutschen Industrieproduktion und die ifo Indikatoren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Vorhersage der Revisionen der Vorratsveränderungen mit Hilfe der ifo Lagerbeurteilung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(07), pages 26-32, April.
    3. Döhrn, Roland, 2018. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen: Revisionspraxis des Statistischen Bundesamtes und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen," RWI Materialien 127, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real-time data; GDP revisions; noise; news; forecasting; seasonal adjustment; price adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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