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Do forecasters inform or reassure?

Author

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  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do forecasters inform or reassure?," KOF Working papers 09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-215
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005778341
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005778341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.

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    Keywords

    Quality of statistical data; real-time data; signal-to-noise ratio; forecasts; revisions;
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