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Do forecasters inform or reassure?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005778341
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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-215.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-215
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Keywords: Quality of statistical data; real-time data; signal-to-noise ratio; forecasts; revisions;

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Cited by:

  1. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.

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