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Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presidential impeachment

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  • Gabriel Caldas Montes
  • Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility on disagreement about economic growth forecasts. Regarding fiscal opacity, as a novelty, we use an indicator that captures the ignorance of financial market experts about the real budget balance condition. Fiscal impulse is represented by two fiscal impulse indicators, while fiscal credibility is represented by two credibility indexes. The findings suggest an increase in fiscal opacity and the adoption of discretionary fiscal policy raise disagreement about economic growth forecasts. The results suggest that fiscal credibility improvements reduce disagreement about economic growth forecasts.

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  • Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:26:y:2022:i:4:p:2356-2393
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12914
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