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Public debt management and credibility: Evidence from an emerging economy

Listed author(s):
  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira
  • Machado, Marcelo Rangel

This study is a contribution to the literature concerning the management of the public debt in emerging economies. A novelty in this article is the introduction of a fiscal credibility index based on the market's expectations in regard to the public debt to GDP ratio. The main objective is to present empirical evidence for the Brazilian case concerning the framework of the public debt composition and also the effect of this framework on public debt to GDP ratio. The findings demonstrate that the commitment with the public debt increases the fiscal credibility and that it is crucial for the success of the management of the public debt. Contrary to what is recommended in the standard literature an increase in the average maturity and the share of inflation-linked bonds imply costs that cannot be neglected.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312002842
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 30 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 10-21

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:10-21
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.009
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
  3. Missale, Alessandro & Giavazzi, Francesco & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. " How Is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2009. "Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1228-1238, November.
  6. Robert Barro, 2003. "Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, May.
  7. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
  8. George Kopits, 2000. "How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?," IMF Working Papers 00/185, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Silvia Marchesi, 2006. "Buybacks of domestic debt in public debt management," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 379-400.
  10. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  12. Anderson, Phillip R. D. & Silva, Anderson Caputo & Velandia-Rubiano, Antonio, 2010. "Public debt management in emerging market economies : has this time been different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5399, The World Bank.
  13. Cragg, John G, 1983. "More Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroscedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 751-763, May.
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