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Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil

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  • Montes, Gabriel Caldas
  • Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca
  • Acar, Tatiana

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal communication and clarity of announcements about fiscal policy on public debt uncertainty. Using different econometric techniques (OLS, GMM and Quantile Regressions), the results indicate that the provision of more information through communication must be accompanied by improvements in the clarity of the announcements released. Thus, our findings reveal that as clarity of fiscal announcements increases, the stronger is the effect of improvements in communication from fiscal authority in reducing public debt uncertainty; and this effect is even stronger when public debt uncertainty is higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:38-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2018.12.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo henrique Luna, 2021. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1486-1500.
    2. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    4. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    5. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre el desacuerdo en las expectativas de la tasa de política monetaria: evidencias para Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 14(2), pages 375-409, June.
    6. Bruno Ferreira Oliveira & Rodolfo Tomás Fonseca Nicolay, 2022. "Does innovative capacity affect the deindustrialization process? A panel data analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, December.
    7. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal communication; Clarity; Disagreement; Expectations; Public debt; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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