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What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?

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  • MORIKAWA Masayuki

Abstract

This paper uses data from an original survey of Japanese listed companies to present empirical findings concerning subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as an international trade policy and the social security system. Uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy, and environmental policy can have substantial effects on the managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. Among non-manufacturing companies, uncertainty regarding the social security system and labor market regulations affects employee hiring and organizational restructuring. To achieve economic growth by promoting future-oriented investment, it is essential to improve the predictability of fundamental economic policies and institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2013. "What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?," Discussion papers 13076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13076
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    18. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2012. "The Effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Policy Priorities for Restoring Economic Growth: Evidence from a survey of Japanese firms (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 12010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Joong S Kang, 2014. "Balance Sheet Repair and Corporate Investment in Japan," IMF Working Papers 14/141, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Elif C. Arbatli & Steven J. Davis & Arata Ito & Naoko Miake & Ikuo Saito, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty In Japan," NBER Working Papers 23411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.

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