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What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?

  • MORIKAWA Masayuki

This paper uses data from an original survey of Japanese listed companies to present empirical findings concerning subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as an international trade policy and the social security system. Uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy, and environmental policy can have substantial effects on the managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. Among non-manufacturing companies, uncertainty regarding the social security system and labor market regulations affects employee hiring and organizational restructuring. To achieve economic growth by promoting future-oriented investment, it is essential to improve the predictability of fundamental economic policies and institutions.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 13076.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13076
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  1. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo & Davide Furceri & Dominique M. Guillaume, 2013. "The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output; The Role of Reforms," IMF Working Papers 13/91, International Monetary Fund.
  9. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2012. "The Effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Policy Priorities for Restoring Economic Growth: Evidence from a survey of Japanese firms (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 12010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.
  11. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006. "Stock Market Volatility around National Elections," Working Paper Series 2006,2, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  12. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
  13. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
  14. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2010. "Volatility, Nonstandard Employment, and Productivity: An empirical analysis using firm-level data," Discussion papers 10025, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  15. MATSUURA Toshiyuki, 2013. "Why Did Manufacturing Firms Increase the Number of Non-regular Workers in the 2000s? Does international trade matter?," Discussion papers 13036, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  16. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
  17. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
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