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How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey

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  • Morikawa, Masayuki

Abstract

This study, using data from an original survey covering both public and private firms in Japan, presents evidence on uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and firms’ evaluations of the government’s numerical targets related to economic policies. The results indicate that Japanese firms perceive uncertainty over certain economic policies, such as the social security system, tax policy, fiscal expenditure, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government’s economic policies are perceived to be difficult to achieve.

Suggested Citation

  • Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:114-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2016.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecofin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:245-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly firm survey data," Discussion papers 17081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Consumption and Saving Behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers," Discussion papers 17075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:59:y:2018:i:c:p:14-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:127-140 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Frondel, Manuel & Krätschell, Karoline & Zwick, Lina, 2018. "Environmental management systems: Does certification pay?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Economic policy; Managerial decision; Numerical target;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E29 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Other
    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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