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How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey

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  • Morikawa, Masayuki

Abstract

This study, using data from an original survey covering both public and private firms in Japan, presents evidence on uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and firms’ evaluations of the government’s numerical targets related to economic policies. The results indicate that Japanese firms perceive uncertainty over certain economic policies, such as the social security system, tax policy, fiscal expenditure, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government’s economic policies are perceived to be difficult to achieve.

Suggested Citation

  • Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:114-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2016.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Consumption and Saving Behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers," Discussion papers 17075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Takafumi Kawakubo & Charlotte Chunming Meng & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen, 2021. "Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-18, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly firm survey data," Discussion papers 17081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2022. "The Economic Effects Of Covid-19 Mitigation Policies On Unemployment And Economic Policy Uncertainty," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 61-84, March.
    5. Frondel, Manuel & Krätschell, Karoline & Zwick, Lina, 2018. "Environmental management systems: Does certification pay?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-24.
    6. ITO Asei & LIM Jaehwan & ZHANG Hongyong, 2022. "Catching the Political Leader's Signals: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," Discussion papers 22081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    9. Ito, Asei & Lim, Jaehwan & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Catching the political leader's signal: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Vo, Hong & Phan, Anh & Trinh, Quoc-Dat & Vu, Linh Nhat, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect trade credit and firm value in Korea? A comparison of chaebol vs. non-chaebol firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 474-491.
    11. Halkos, George & Kitsos, Christos, 2018. "Uncertainty in environmental economics: The problem of entropy and model choice," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 127-140.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Economic policy; Managerial decision; Numerical target;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E29 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Other
    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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