IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v119y2013i2p216-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are the effects of Bloom’s uncertainty shocks robust?

Author

Listed:
  • Choi, Sangyup

Abstract

This paper shows that “wait-and-see” dynamics of uncertainty shocks in Bloom (2009) are not necessarily robust over time. Bloom (2009) shows that uncertainty shocks, identified by spikes in stock market volatility from 1962 to 2008, trigger immediate falls in output and employment followed by rapid rebounds after the resolution of uncertainty. This paper finds that if one splits the sample into two sub-samples these findings hold only for the period between 1962 and 1982. Stock market volatility shocks failed to produce “wait-and-see” dynamics after 1983.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Sangyup, 2013. "Are the effects of Bloom’s uncertainty shocks robust?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 216-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:216-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176513000761
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    3. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    4. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Uncertain Times, uncertain measures," Working Papers tecipa-352, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    6. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2013. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
    7. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sung Je Byun & Soojin Jo, 2018. "Heterogeneity in the dynamic effects of uncertainty on investment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 127-155, February.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 344-358.
    3. Choi Sangyup & Yoon Chansik, 2022. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 397-434, June.
    4. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 89-118, February.
    5. Saltzman, Bennett & Yung, Julieta, 2018. "A machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-62.
    6. Benjamin Born & Sebastian Breuer & Steffen Elstner, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(5), pages 951-971, October.
    7. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2017. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 682-711, October.
    8. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
    9. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2013. "What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?," Discussion papers 13076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Choi, Sangyup, 2017. "Variability in the effects of uncertainty shocks: New stylized facts from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-144.
    11. Siye Bae & Soojin Jo & Myungkyu Shim, 2025. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty differ from other uncertainty measures? Replication of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016)," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 40-74, February.
    12. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    13. Masayuki Morikawa, 2016. "What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 527-540, December.
    14. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2019. "Deconstructing uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 22-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    2. Higgins, C. Richard, 2017. "Estimating general equilibrium models with stochastic volatility and changing parameters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 163-170.
    3. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2018. "To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 189-192.
    4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    5. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    6. Cristina Fuentes‐Albero, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1581-1621, September.
    7. de Blas Beatriz, 2009. "Can Financial Frictions Help Explain the Performance of the U.S. Fed?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, June.
    8. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 216-229.
    9. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
    10. Charles Bean, 2010. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture The Great Moderation, The Great Panic, and The Great Contraction," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 289-325, 04-05.
    11. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 34-47, October.
    12. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
    13. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
    14. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
    15. Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot J. Muller, 2021. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 905-921, December.
    16. Han, Jong-Suk & Hur, Joonyoung, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Korea: A time-varying coefficient VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 142-152.
    17. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Estimating the Evolution of Money’s Role in the U.S. Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 23-52, February.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "The econometrics of DSGE models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
    19. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
    20. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:216-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.