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The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty

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  • Michael D. Plante
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Nathaniel Throckmorton

Abstract

This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data?away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly negative when the ZLB binds.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2014. "The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty," Working Papers 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 21 May 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1405
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1405
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," CAMA Working Papers 2014-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_020, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of structural vector autoregressions with external instruments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 951-971, September.
    4. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "The New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Calvo vs. Rotemberg," CEPR Discussion Papers 11568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy," Working Papers 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    7. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 23 Feb 2018.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2017. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," NBER Working Papers 23614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    12. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
    13. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    14. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2016. "Are nonlinear methods necessary at the zero lower bound?," Working Papers 1606, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 02 Aug 2016.
    15. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Seneca, Martin, 2016. "Risk shocks close to the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 606, Bank of England.
    17. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2019. "Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 297-318, April.
    19. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development," Working papers 2019rwp-144, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    20. G. Angelini & L. Fanelli, 2018. "Identification and estimation issues in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," Working Papers wp1122, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic activity; uncertainty; monetary policy; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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