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The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Plante, Michael D.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Richter, Alexander

    () (Auburn University)

  • Throckmorton, Nathaniel

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data—away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly negative when the ZLB binds.

Suggested Citation

  • Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2014. "The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty," Working Papers 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1405 DOI: 10.24149/wp1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 182-204.
    2. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    3. Anton Nakov, 2008. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 73-127, June.
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    5. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-17, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Taisuke Nakata, 2013. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," 2013 Meeting Papers 924, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.
    8. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
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    10. Apostolos Serletis, 2012. "Oil Price Uncertainty," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8407.
    11. Richter Alexander W. & Throckmorton Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound: frequency, duration, and numerical convergence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
    12. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton & Todd Walker, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 445-476, December.
    13. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
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    17. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 14-38.
    18. Gust, Christopher J. & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Smith, Matthew E. & Herbst, Edward, 2012. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised Jan 2016.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    2. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "The New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Calvo vs. Rotemberg," Dynare Working Papers 51, CEPREMAP.
    3. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2016. "Are nonlinear methods necessary at the zero lower bound?," Working Papers 1606, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; uncertainty; economic activity; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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