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The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty

  • Plante, Michael D.

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Richter, Alexander

    ()

    (Auburn University)

  • Throckmorton, Nathaniel

    (Indiana University)

This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data—away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly negative when the ZLB binds.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 1405.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 21 May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1405
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  1. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-17, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  2. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1991. "Equilibrium in a Production Economy with an Income Tax," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1091-1104, July.
  3. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, 06.
  4. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2014. "The Zero Lower Bound: Frequency, Duration, and Numerical Convergence," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-09, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  5. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2013. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 4336, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.
  7. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  8. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
  9. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, 09.
  10. Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2011. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 774, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2012.
  12. Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, J David & Smith, Matthew E, 2012. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9214, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Mendes, Rhys R., 2011. "Uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound: A Theoretical Analysis," MPRA Paper 59218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton & Todd Walker, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 445-476, December.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  16. Taisuke Nakata, 2013. "Uncertainty at the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Anton Nakov, 2008. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 73-127, June.
  18. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2012. "Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8972, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:535-558 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July.
  21. Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2012. "Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates," Working Papers 1201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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