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Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates

Author

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  • Nora Traum

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Michael Plante

    (Research Department)

Abstract

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

Suggested Citation

  • Nora Traum & Michael Plante, 2012. "Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates," 2012 Meeting Papers 455, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:455
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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    2. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "Uncertainty-driven business cycles: assessing the markup channel," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145608, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    4. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    5. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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