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Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates

Author Info

  • Nora Traum

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Michael Plante

    (Research Department)

Abstract

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 455.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:455
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  1. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2013. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 4336, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Eric Swanson & Gary Anderson & Andrew Levin, 2006. "Higher-order perturbation solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models," Working Paper Series 2006-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  5. Michael Plante, 2009. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks," Caepr Working Papers 2009-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
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  7. Ruediger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2008. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1566R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2010.
  8. Arnberg, Soren & Bjorner, Thomas Bue, 2007. "Substitution between energy, capital and labour within industrial companies: A micro panel data analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 122-136, May.
  9. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
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  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Martín Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," NBER Working Papers 14875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. David R. Stockman, 2006. "Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Activity: A Putty-Clay Perspective," Working Papers 06-15, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  16. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, 09.
  17. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
  18. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  19. Ryan Kellogg, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," NBER Working Papers 16541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2014. "The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty," Working Papers 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur H�lag� & Hande K���k, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
  3. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Risk Matters: A Comment," Dynare Working Papers 39, CEPREMAP.

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