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How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks

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  • MICHAEL PLANTE

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Abstract

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model where the relative price of oil is affected by exogenous supply shocks and a productivity-driven demand shock. When wages are flexible, stabilizing core infation is optimal and the nominal rate rises (falls) in response to a demand (supply) shock. When both prices and wages are sticky, core inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Stabilizing CPI inflation generates small welfare losses only if the demand shock is the main driver of oil prices. Based on a VAR estimated using post-1986 data for the U.S., both shocks have had minimal impacts on core inflation. The federal funds rate rises in response to the demand shock but falls in response to the supply shock, consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model for a policy that stabilizes core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Plante, 2009. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks," Caepr Working Papers 2009-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2009-013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stepahnie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 5, pages 125-186 Central Bank of Chile.
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    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. Plante, Michael, 2014. "How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nida Çakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cakir Melek, Nida & Plante, Michael D. & Yucel, Mine K., 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 04 Sep 2017.
    3. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    4. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:536-546 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Plante, Michael, 2014. "How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Plante, Michael D. & Traum, Nora, 2012. "Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates," Working Papers 1201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Y. Charles Li & Hong Yang, 2016. "A mathematical model of demand-supply dynamics with collectability and saturation factors," Papers 1606.06720, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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