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Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates

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Listed:
  • Michael Plante

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Nora Traum

    () (North Carolina State University)

Abstract

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2012. "Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates," CAEPR Working Papers 2012-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2012002
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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    2. Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2017. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Decreasing Pass-through to Core Inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 17/681, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 30 May 2017.
    3. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "Uncertainty-driven business cycles: assessing the markup channel," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145608, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. repec:spr:eurase:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-017-0079-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    6. repec:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:611:p:1730-1757 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    8. repec:eee:enepol:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:1306-1319 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wei Kang & David Penn & Joachim Zietz, 2015. "The response of state employment to oil price volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 478-500, July.
    10. Takuji Fueki & Hiroka Higashi & Naoto Higashio & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2018. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: the role of expectations in the crude oil market," BIS Working Papers 725, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. repec:eee:appene:v:233-234:y:2019:i::p:612-621 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.

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