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The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty

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  • Michael Plante
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

Abstract

This article examines the correlation between uncertainty and real GDP growth. We use the volatility of real GDP growth from a VAR, stock market volatility, survey†based forecast dispersion and macro uncertainty index as proxies for uncertainty. In each case, a stronger negative correlation emerged in 2008. We contend the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the federal funds rate contributed to our finding. To test our theory, we estimate a New Keynesian model with a ZLB constraint to generate a data†driven, forward†looking uncertainty measure. The correlations between that measure and real GDP growth are close to the values in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:611:p:1730-1757
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12445
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of structural vector autoregressions with external instruments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 951-971, September.
    2. Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy," Working Papers 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    3. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 23 Feb 2018.
    4. Seneca, Martin, 2016. "Risk shocks close to the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 606, Bank of England.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    6. Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2019. "Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 297-318, April.
    8. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    9. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_020, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    10. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2017. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," NBER Working Papers 23614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    13. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    14. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "The New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Calvo vs. Rotemberg," Dynare Working Papers 51, CEPREMAP.
    15. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
    17. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2016. "Are nonlinear methods necessary at the zero lower bound?," Working Papers 1606, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 02 Aug 2016.
    18. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development," Working papers 2019rwp-144, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    20. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. G. Angelini & L. Fanelli, 2018. "Identification and estimation issues in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," Working Papers wp1122, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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