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The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty

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  • Michael Plante
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

Abstract

This article examines the correlation between uncertainty and real GDP growth. We use the volatility of real GDP growth from a VAR, stock market volatility, survey†based forecast dispersion and macro uncertainty index as proxies for uncertainty. In each case, a stronger negative correlation emerged in 2008. We contend the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the federal funds rate contributed to our finding. To test our theory, we estimate a New Keynesian model with a ZLB constraint to generate a data†driven, forward†looking uncertainty measure. The correlations between that measure and real GDP growth are close to the values in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:611:p:1730-1757
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12445
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 23 Feb 2018.
    2. Seneca, Martin, 2016. "Risk shocks close to the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 606, Bank of England.
    3. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 025, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    5. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "The New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Calvo vs. Rotemberg," Dynare Working Papers 51, CEPREMAP.
    6. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2016. "Are nonlinear methods necessary at the zero lower bound?," Working Papers 1606, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    9. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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