Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they take today. Consequently, how households and firms respond to uncertainty has implications for economic activity. In addition, uncertainty matters to policymakers: Monetary policymakers recognize that if uncertainty about future inflation is high, decision-making by households and firms becomes more complicated. In this article, Keith Sill describes how uncertainty can be measured using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and shows how these measures have changed over time for output growth and inflation. He also examines some links between the macroeconomy and measures of output and inflation uncertainty.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): Q4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574|
Web page: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.phil.frb.org/publicaffairs/pubs/index.html Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, Angus, 1991.
"Saving and Liquidity Constraints,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
- R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-49, April.
- Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 9-18.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006.
"Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2012:i:q4:p:16-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.