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Risk and uncertainty

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Abstract

Many news reports and economic experts talk about uncertainty. But what does the word mean in an economic context? Specifically, what do economists have in mind when they talk about it? In this article, Pablo Guerron-Quintana discusses the concepts of risk and uncertainty, what the difference is between the two terms, and why their presence in the economy may have widespread effects. He also talks about measuring risk at the aggregate level ? that is, risk that affects all participants in the economy ? and he reviews the various types of risk measures that economists have proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 9-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2012:i:q1:p:9-18
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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/business-review/2012/q1/brq112_risk-and-uncertainty.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    4. Smith, Eric & Wright, Randall, 1992. "Why Is Automobile Insurance in Philadelphia So Damn Expensive?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 756-772, September.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. LeRoy, Stephen F & Singell, Larry D, Jr, 1987. "Knight on Risk and Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(2), pages 394-406, April.
    7. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    8. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzozowski & Grzegorz Tchorek, 2017. "Exchange Rate Risk as an Obstacle to Export Activity," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 115-141.
    2. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.

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